Society's Backend 08月28日
AI泡沫与软件工程师的现实机遇
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本周AI领域出现重要进展,Sam Altman承认AI存在泡沫,用户对AI的期望过高。他同时指出,未来不会是单一AI主导,而是需要多样化的AI助手。这一观点与此前“AI一统天下”的叙事形成反差。研究表明,多数公司在AI代理应用上未达预期,AWS CEO也认为AI不会取代初级工程师。AI泡沫的降温对软件工程师而言是积极信号,因为它使AI应用回归现实,并促使企业重新评估AI的价值。AI工具的生产力提升被夸大,学习曲线陡峭。同时,应用层的价值愈发凸显,软件工程师在将AI应用于实际问题方面发挥关键作用。尽管AI是变革性技术,但过度炒作其当前能力会损害其长期发展。

💡 **AI泡沫与现实回归**:Sam Altman公开承认AI领域存在泡沫,用户对AI的期望可能过高,这与此前“AI无所不能”的叙事形成对比。近期研究显示,约95%的公司在采用AI代理方面未实现预期效果,AWS CEO也指出AI不会取代初级工程师,这些都表明AI应用正逐步回归现实,对软件工程师而言是积极信号。

🚀 **AI多样性与应用层价值**:Altman强调未来不会是单一AI主导,而是需要更多个性化的AI助手,这改变了“超智能只有一个赢家”的观点。AI工具的生产力提升并非如宣传般立竿见影,存在显著的学习曲线。AI的真正价值体现在将其有效应用于解决实际问题,这正是软件工程师发挥关键作用的领域,应用层的构建和优化至关重要。

📈 **企业对AI价值的重新评估**:随着AI泡沫的降温,企业将更务实地评估AI的价值。曾被寄予厚望的AI辅助编程,其生产力增幅被夸大,且熟练掌握AI工具需要时间和精力。软件工程师需要理解AI的能力边界,并将其与实际业务需求相结合,才能真正发挥AI的潜力。AI在K-12教育领域的应用也显示出其作为效率倍增器的潜力,但AI不能替代人际互动。

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This was a super interesting and incredibly important week for AI. Sam Altman admitted that AI is in a bubble and that people are overexcited about it. This is a huge divergence from the narrative that we've previously seen: AI can do everything.

Another really important thing that Sam Altman said is that there won't be one single AI. AI assistants are a personal thing and we'll need more than just one AI if we want AI to suit everyone. This is also a divergence from the narrative we've seen of everybody rushing toward AI because there can only be one superintelligence winner.

This is yet another example of the AI bubble shrinking. We've already seen a study that shows that 95% of companies trying to employ AI agents haven't seen the throughput that they've wanted from them. We've also seen the Amazon AWS CEO tell everyone it's foolish to think that AI will replace junior engineers.

The bubble shrinking is a very good thing for software engineers. When things are grounded in reality, that's where software engineers thrive. When building for the real world, we don't have a choice but to be faced with reality. Building things for the real world is much more difficult when the people wanting those things aren't grounded in reality.

I see this as a good thing for two primary reasons:

First, we'll see businesses value AI differently. Specifically pertaining to software engineering, I've seen a lot of people say their management expects them to be ten times as productive as they previously were now that they can code with AI.

While anyone who has coded with AI would have to admit it's a valuable tool, the productivity gains are far overblown. This is especially true when you consider the time it takes developers to learn how to use it properly.

Like any tool, it takes time to become acquainted with it and to learn how to use it effectively. I work with some of the most talented engineers in the industry, and even they're having a hard time adapting to using AI coding tools. There's a huge learning curve to understanding where AI coding tools work and what they don't work on.

Second, the importance of the application layer is becoming more evident week after week. AI tools don't have real value just because AI exists. They have that value when the AI is applied to a real-world problem effectively. That's where software engineers come in.

Now, a few caveats about what I said above:

First, I'm not saying AI isn't a life-changing technology. It's capable of a lot and will only be capable of more going forward. But overhyping and overexciting its current capabilities and the capabilities in the near future is bad for everyone, including AI itself over the long run.

Second, I'm really hoping the AI bubble doesn't burst but that it’s grounded in reality. It's very possible this could go either way. A burst usually means people losing jobs and that’s never good.

If you want to read more about some of the realities of building AI in the real world, check out the 'Infrastructure and Energy' section below about what companies and engineers are doing to innovate under and meet the demand for the power requirements of AI.

I'm curious to know your thoughts: When everyone acknowledges we're in a bubble, the question becomes: what survives when it pops?

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If you missed last week's ML for SWEs about what AI really means for software engineering jobs:

Must-reads

Other interesting things this week

AI Developments

Product Launches

Tools & Resources

Research & Analysis

Infrastructure & Engineering

Security & Governance

Career & Industry


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Always be (machine) learning,

Logan

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AI 软件工程 AI泡沫 人工智能 机器学习 AI Bubble Software Engineering Machine Learning
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