Fortune | FORTUNE 08月26日
“跳槽者”时代落幕,“恋岗者”悄然兴起
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近期研究显示,曾被视为疫情期间劳动力市场标志的“跳槽者”时代正迅速结束,取而代之的是“恋岗者”的兴起。2022年是跳槽者的高峰期,而2025年则成为恋岗者的时代。研究表明,由于经济不确定性和持续的裁员,许多员工倾向于坚守现有岗位以寻求稳定性。跳槽者获得加薪的幅度已大幅缩减,甚至低于疫情前水平。特别是在金融、信息和商业服务等白领行业,跳槽现象明显降温。许多员工感到“卡住”,但因缺乏更好的机会而选择“恋岗”。同时,年轻一代,特别是Gen Z,面临着严峻的就业挑战,失业率上升,职业前景不明朗。

📈 **“跳槽者”时代终结,转为“恋岗者”主导:** Bank of America的研究表明,曾因疫情期间“大辞职潮”而兴盛的“跳槽者”群体正在迅速减少,取而代之的是选择坚守岗位的“恋岗者”。这种转变反映了经济的不确定性和持续的裁员,促使员工优先考虑工作稳定性。

💰 **跳槽者薪资优势消失:** 过去,跳槽者通常能获得显著的薪资增长。然而,最新数据显示,跳槽者的薪资涨幅已大幅缩水,从2022年的20%降至2025年7月的7%,甚至低于2019年的平均水平。在某些时期,跳槽者和留任者的薪资增长幅度甚至持平,这削弱了跳槽的经济驱动力。

💼 **白领行业跳槽降温,年轻群体就业承压:** 金融、信息和商业服务等白领行业的跳槽率显著下降,而制造业和建筑业的周薪制和劳动力供应问题导致周转率略高。同时,年轻一代(如Gen Z)面临着更高的失业率和不确明的职业前景,许多人因教育和培训中断而受影响,整体就业形势严峻。

😟 **员工普遍感到“卡住”:** 尽管跳槽行为减少,但这并不意味着员工对工作满意。Glassdoor的报告显示,大多数员工感到“卡住”,有跳槽意愿但因缺乏机会而无法实现。这种“静默离职”和敬业度下降的现象,对全球经济造成了可观的损失。

⚖️ **“恋岗”成为生存策略:** 在当前经济环境下,许多员工选择“恋岗”并非出于忠诚,而是将其视为一种生存策略。他们认为当前经济缺乏更好的机会,因此选择紧握现有职位,即使工作并非理想状态。

The job hopper and the job hugger: Two distinct species, with one going into hibernation as the other emerges. Bank of America’s latest research shows that the era of the job hopper—once the defining labor market species during the pandemic’s “Great Resignation”—is quickly vanishing. The job hopper’s day was 2022, BofA finds, and even though it doesn’t use the phrase, the report constitutes additional evidence that 2025 is the heyday of the “job hugger.”

Consulting firm Korn Ferry found earlier this month that the careers climate of 2025 has workers holding onto their jobs “for dear life.” This analysis followed a shocking jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for July, which massively revised downward earlier estimates of jobs growth in May and June. Beyond President Trump immediately firing the head of the bureau, it confirmed an economy with minuscule jobs growth.

“Given just all the activity that happened post-COVID and then some of these constant layoffs, people are waiting and sitting in seats and hoping that they have more stability,” Korn Ferry managing consultant Stacy DeCesaro previously told Fortune about the rise of the job huggers. “No one is wanting to leave unless they’re very unhappy or miserable in their job or just feel so unsettled by the company.”

BofA says job hopers are hard to measure but are an important part of the overall labor market picture, and their data shows a clear drop from the peak of the Great Resignation. They find job hopping is still above its prepandemic levels, but that was a very different economy, with just 3.5% unemployment (the lowest since 1969) and an extraordinarily tight labor market. In retrospect, that was the end of a long period of economic expansion, with elevated job stability and reduced urgency for changing jobs, before the pandemic changed the picture dramatically.

A big helping of ‘meh’

BofA Research used aggregated and anonymized deposit account data across millions of customers to track job-to-job, or “J2J” moves, identifying the rate by identifying changes in payroll within deposit accounts. It aligns with federal data from the JOLTS survey, which tracks the “quits rate” every month, showing that July’s quits rate was the lowest level since December. Posting on Bluesky, Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao wrote that the report “shows softer figures with hires and quits rates still sluggish. Not dire, not amazing, more meh.”

Speaking to Fortune about the general state of the labor market in a new interview, Zhao said Glassdoor’s data shows that “more and more workers are sitting tight in their roles and feeling stuck as a result.”

BofA’s latest report finds the J2J move rate fell sharply from its 2022 peak and now sits just 2% higher than pre-pandemic levels—having trended downward most of the past year. Wage increases for job hoppers have collapsed, too, with median pay raises for switchers dropping from 20% in 2022 to just 7% as of July 2025, even dipping below 2019 averages. BofA cites data from the Atlanta Fed showing that from May through July, wage growth for job switchers equalled that of job stayers—the last time this happened was in 2010, during the tepid recovery of the Great Recession.

White-collar chill

BofA’s granular payroll analysis reveals that job changing has cooled dramatically in industries such as finance, information, and business services, where monthly pay periods are prevalent and job moves are rare. Meanwhile, job changing remains a bit stronger in industries including manufacturing and construction, where weekly pay periods and ongoing labor supply issues keep turnover modestly higher. But overall, with the rate of job changers receiving monthly pay dropping and weekly pay outpacing other types, the “white-collar job hopper” is disappearing fastest.

This doesn’t mean workers are satisfied. A November 2024 report from Glassdoor found that 65% of employees reported feeling “stuck” in their jobs, implying that they wanted to job-hop but just couldn’t. Quiet quitting and disengagement are rising, with Gallup estimating that disengagement cost the global economy $438 billion in 2024. Executive turnover adds to the uncertainty—with CEO departures hitting record highs and employees reporting a revolving door at the top. For many, “job hugging” is survival, not loyalty.

The kids are not alright

To finish its report, BofA zoomed out to look at younger workers and the plight of Gen Z, noting that over 13% of unemployed Americans in July were new entrants or those looking for jobs with no prior work experience, which skews towards Gen Z. That is the highest since 1988, according to the Richmond Fed. Worryingly, the unemployment rate for young workers has continued to climb, reaching 7.4% in June.

Citing research from the International Labor Organization, BofA argues that young people have suffered higher employment losses than older workers and have quit their studies due to disruptions in education and on-the-job training. A proprietary BofA survey finds younger generations are more likely to be negatively affected by factors related to work/
employment.

Bank of America Global Research

Overall, the bank estimates that “some 289 million young people globally are neither gaining professional experience through a job nor developing skills by participating in an educational or vocational program, limiting economic gains.” BofA sees dim employment prospects for young workers in the medium term, given uncertainty from the new tariffs regime, the adoption of AI, and the general drag on entry-level positions.

In this economy, then, the job huggers are betting that there isn’t a better opportunity out there, and the young workers find themselves on the outside looking in. BofA doesn’t project any scenarios in the event of a recession, but with the economy stalling out for job hoppers, the workforce is in white-knuckle mode, holding on tight.

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相关标签

Job Hopper Job Hugger Labor Market Economy Employment Trends Gen Z Career 跳槽 恋岗 劳动力市场 经济 就业趋势 Z世代 职业
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