cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 08月22日
Can synthetic data reproduce real-world findings in epidemiology? A replication study using tree-based generative AI
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本文提出使用对抗随机森林(ARF)生成流行病学数据,通过对比真实数据与合成数据,验证了ARF在流行病学数据合成中的可靠性,并分析了维度和变量复杂性对合成数据质量的影响。

arXiv:2508.14936v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative artificial intelligence for synthetic data generation holds substantial potential to address practical challenges in epidemiology. However, many current methods suffer from limited quality, high computational demands, and complexity for non-experts. Furthermore, common evaluation strategies for synthetic data often fail to directly reflect statistical utility. Against this background, a critical underexplored question is whether synthetic data can reliably reproduce key findings from epidemiological research. We propose the use of adversarial random forests (ARF) as an efficient and convenient method for synthesizing tabular epidemiological data. To evaluate its performance, we replicated statistical analyses from six epidemiological publications and compared original with synthetic results. These publications cover blood pressure, anthropometry, myocardial infarction, accelerometry, loneliness, and diabetes, based on data from the German National Cohort (NAKO Gesundheitsstudie), the Bremen STEMI Registry U45 Study, and the Guelph Family Health Study. Additionally, we assessed the impact of dimensionality and variable complexity on synthesis quality by limiting datasets to variables relevant for individual analyses, including necessary derivations. Across all replicated original studies, results from multiple synthetic data replications consistently aligned with original findings. Even for datasets with relatively low sample size-to-dimensionality ratios, the replication outcomes closely matched the original results across various descriptive and inferential analyses. Reducing dimensionality and pre-deriving variables further enhanced both quality and stability of the results.

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对抗随机森林 流行病学数据 数据合成 统计分析 维度复杂性
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