Fortune | FORTUNE 08月22日
Trump goes on $100 million bond buying spree: Here’s what it could signal about future interest rates
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自上任以来,美国总统特朗普据称已斥资超过一亿美元购买公司债券和市政债券。这些投资涵盖了家得宝、T-Mobile、联合健康等大型企业,以及地方政府发行的债务。与许多总统不同,特朗普并未将其投资置于严格的“盲信托”之下,而是保留了最终控制权。分析认为,此举可能与他期望利率下降,从而在债券价格上涨时获利有关。他近期频繁敦促美联储降息的行为,也被解读为一种“自我推销”投资组合的策略。此外,购买市政债券的免税利息也可能是一个投资考量。

💰 特朗普上任以来,已投资超过1亿美元购买各类债券,包括大型企业债券和地方政府发行的债务。这些投资涵盖了家得宝、T-Mobile、联合健康和Meta等公司,显示其在债券市场的活跃度。

⚖️ 与其他总统不同,特朗普并未将其投资完全置于“盲信托”之下,而是保留了对投资的最终控制权,将管理权委托给儿子。这种做法在政府官员中较为罕见,可能引发利益冲突的担忧。

📉 分析人士指出,特朗普大量购买债券的行为,可能与其预期利率将下降有关。债券价格通常在利率下降时上涨,这为他提供了潜在的套利机会。他持续施压美联储降息,也被视为试图影响市场以利于其投资。

🏛️ 特朗普还购买了地方政府、医院和学校等机构发行的市政债券。这类债券的利息通常免缴联邦所得税,在某些情况下还免缴州税,这为投资者提供了一种税收优惠的投资选择。

📈 在当前股市接近历史高点的情况下,特朗普选择投资债券,可能是一种审慎的资产配置策略。债券的波动性通常低于股票,能够提供相对稳定的收益和资本保值。

President Donald Trump has gone on a bond buying spree since taking office, reportedly sinking more than $100 million into debt issued by big companies and municipal governments alike.

Trump put millions of dollars behind his bond strategy in February including between $500,000 and $1 million each into bonds issued by companies such as Home Depot, T-Mobile, and United Healthcare. Another bet of between $250,000 and $500,000 went into debt issued by Meta, based on a CNBC calculation of 690 transactions reported to the Office of Government Ethics since January and published Tuesday. He has also bought debt issued by local U.S. governments, gas districts, water supply districts, hospital authorities, and school boards, according to CNBC

The White House did not immediately return Fortune‘s request for comment.

Investors usually turn to bonds because they are less volatile than stocks. Bonds are like a loan that pays out interest to an investor, usually semi-annually, over a defined period. Once that period ends and the bond reaches maturity, the investor gets their principal investment back.

Trump’s bond buying binge stands out because he, unlike other presidents, has not put his investments into a true blind trust. Otherwise, Trump’s bond purchases, whether directed by him or the person in charge of his finances, look like the typical bet of a deep-pocketed investor—one who thinks interest rates are set to fall, said Russell Rhoads, an associate clinical professor of financial management at Indiana University. 

Because bond prices typically rise when interest rates fall, it’s possible Trump made the bets hoping he could later sell the bonds at a profit. Rates are likely to drop faster for corporate bonds than for government bonds because they are riskier, said Rhoads. Trump’s insistent pressure for the Fed to cut rates could also be akin to him “talking his book,” added Rhoads. 

“You could take the way that he’s been pushing so hard for the Fed to cut rates as like a portfolio manager going on CNBC and talking positive about a stock that’s a big holding of theirs to try to get other people to buy it,” Rhoads told Fortune.

The Fed and interest rates

The Fed has held interest rates steady at between 4.25% and 4.5% since late 2024, although some investors are looking to the central bank’s September meeting for a possible rate cut.

Trump’s purchase of municipal bonds, issued by state and local governments, could also be part of the investment strategy, because the interest they yield is generally exempt from federal income taxes. A bond from an investor’s home state will generally be exempt from state taxes. With the stock market near all-time-highs, a preference for bonds could be wise.

“It’s just a logical portfolio management move, as opposed to, you know, something that he knows something about rates that the rest of us don’t know,” said Rhoads.

Trump has maintained ultimate control over his businesses and investments, while delegating responsibility for his business empire to his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. The president and his immediate family have reportedly profited $3.4 billion months into his term, especially from his crypto dealings, the New Yorker reported. The president and vice president are exempt from the main law aimed at preventing conflicts of interest by government officials.

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特朗普 债券投资 利率 金融 政治
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