Fortune | FORTUNE 08月19日
Wall Street isn’t worried about an AI bubble. Sam Altman is.
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尽管OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman将当前人工智能热潮与1990年代的互联网泡沫相提并论,并认为部分初创公司估值“疯狂”,暗示投资者可能过度兴奋,但华尔街分析师普遍持乐观态度。他们认为AI革命将至少推动科技牛市两到三年,并将此比作“1996年的时刻”,而非“1999年的时刻”,因为AI是第四次工业革命的核心,投资巨大且潜力无限。大型科技公司财报强劲,并未显露支出放缓迹象,并持续加大AI领域的资本投入。尽管有观点指出AI投资可能超出可持续增长,甚至估值已超过互联网泡沫顶峰,但整体市场仍看好AI的长期价值和增长潜力,建议投资者聚焦大型科技股。

💡 AI热潮引发对泡沫的担忧:OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman将当前AI热潮与1990年代的互联网泡沫类比,认为部分初创公司估值过高,暗示投资者存在过度兴奋的情况,并预测部分投资者可能会因此“非常受伤”。

📈 华尔街分析师的乐观展望:以Wedbush的Dan Ives和Treasury Partners的Richard Saperstein为代表的分析师不认同泡沫论,认为AI革命将驱动科技牛市持续2-3年,并将当前视为“1996年的时刻”,而非互联网泡沫时期的“1999年”,因为AI是第四次工业革命的关键驱动力,投资规模巨大且长期价值可期。

💰 大型科技公司持续投入:微软、Alphabet、Meta等科技巨头近期财报超出预期,并无意削减AI相关支出,反而增加了资本投入以满足不断增长的AI需求。Altman也表示OpenAI未来将投入数万亿美元用于数据中心建设,显示出行业对AI基础设施的巨大投入。

📉 对AI投资的谨慎声音:部分行业人士,如阿里巴巴联合创始人蔡崇信和桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio,对当前AI投资过热表示担忧,认为投资成功与技术变革的成功被混淆。Apollo Global Management的首席经济学家Torsten Slok指出,当前标普500指数中市值最大的十家公司相对于基本面的估值,已超过了互联网泡沫的顶峰时期。

Wall Street analysts are confident the artificial intelligence boom still has room to run. Even if Sam Altman, the OpenAI chief executive at the center of it all, appears less confident.

Speaking to reporters over dinner late last week, Altman drew a parallel between today’s AI frenzy and the 1990s dot-com bubble, when internet company valuations spiked dramatically before crashing.

“When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” Altman said, in comments reported by The Verge. “If you look at most of the bubbles in history, like the tech bubble, there was a real thing. Tech was really important. The internet was a really big deal. People got overexcited.”

He noted some startup valuations for companies raising hundreds of millions of dollars with only a staff of three were “insane.”

“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes,” he said. “Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”

Altman warned that some investors are likely to get “very burnt” as some of the hype unwinds, but maintained that the long-term value created by artificial intelligence will outweigh short-term losses. He also repeated the word “bubble” three times in 15 seconds, joking that the comments were likely to become a headline.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, however, was undeterred by Altman’s slightly tepid tone. He told Fortune that the “AI Revolution will fuel a tech bull market for the next 2-3 years at least.” 

“This is trillions being spent in the buildout of this 4th Industrial Revolution.  There could be forth in certain areas of the private market for AI vendors, but ultimately, we do not see this as a bubble.  This is a 1996 Moment with a lot more room to go, not a 1999 Moment in our view,” he said in an email.

Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners, also shrugged off concerns, noting that large-cap technology stocks remain the market’s driving force.

In a Monday note reported by Barron’s, he wrote that big tech companies “have led the market higher and will continue to dominate market performance,” citing expectations for continued earnings growth, strong reinvestment of cash flows, and the expansion of their global reach.

Saperstein advised investors to remain fully invested in U.S. equities, with a particular focus on large-cap technology names. He pointed to structural tailwinds, including deregulation, onshoring, and favorable treatment of capital expenditures, that he believes will support both corporate performance and broader economic growth in the years ahead.

No sign of a spending slowdown

Investors have had a reason to cheer in recent weeks, as major tech companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all posted strong growth and showed no signs of pulling back on AI.

The largest technology companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, have all increased their capital expenditure forecasts to meet rising demand for artificial intelligence. Altman’s OpenAI is no different.

“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on datacenter construction in the not very distant future,” Altman said, in comments reported by The Verge. “And you should expect a bunch of economists wringing their hands, saying, ‘This is so crazy, it’s so reckless,’ and we’ll just be like, ‘You know what? Let us do our thing.’”

As AI spending soars, there has been simmering concern that investment in AI may be outpacing sustainable growth. Industry figures, including Alibaba co-founder Joe Tsai and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio, have all voiced concerns about the trend.

Earlier this year, Dalio warned that the current cycle on Wall Street appeared to be “very similar” to that seen before the dotcom bust in 1998 and 1999.

“There’s a major new technology that certainly will change the world and be successful. But some people are confusing that with the investments being successful,” Dalio told The Financial Times.

In a report last month, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok went further, arguing that the current AI boom may surpass the internet bubble of the 1990s. He noted that the ten largest companies in the S&P 500 are now more overvalued relative to fundamentals than during the peak of the dot-com era.

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人工智能 AI泡沫 科技投资 华尔街分析 第四次工业革命
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