Fortune | FORTUNE 08月19日
Housing shrinkflation is here to stay. New homes are 11% smaller but 74% more expensive than a decade ago
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近十年,美国新房面积平均缩小11%,但每平方英尺价格却上涨74%。从2014年的平均2707平方英尺降至2024年的2404平方英尺,每平方英尺价格从97.25美元飙升至168.86美元。这一现象被称为“住房缩水通胀”,其根源在于土地、劳动力和材料成本的激增,以及建筑工人短缺。为维持项目可行性,建筑商不得不削减建筑面积,同时维持价格。特朗普政府的关税也推高了建材成本,进一步加剧了这一趋势。为了应对成本压力,建筑商开始通过优化设计,如增加多功能空间、减少走廊等来提高空间利用率,以满足购房者对经济实惠且易于维护的紧凑型房屋的需求。

📈 **住房面积缩小与价格上涨并存**:近十年间,新建单户住宅的平均面积从2707平方英尺下降到2404平方英尺,但每平方英尺的价格却从97.25美元上涨到168.86美元,涨幅高达74%,显示出“住房缩水通胀”的现象。

🏗️ **多重因素推高建筑成本**:土地、劳动力和建筑材料成本的飙升是导致住房面积缩小的主要原因。特别是疫情后的材料成本上涨,以及特朗普政府的关税政策,显著增加了新房的建造成本。同时,建筑行业面临严重的劳动力短缺,也加剧了成本压力。

💡 **设计创新应对成本挑战**:为了在成本上升的情况下保持项目的可行性,建筑商不得不削减建筑面积。同时,他们也通过更具创造性的设计来最大化空间利用率,例如增加口袋式办公室、多功能起居区以及取消不必要的走廊,以满足消费者对紧凑型、易于维护且价格合理的房屋的需求。

🏠 **年轻一代的住房偏好转变**:千禧一代和Gen Z等首次购房者不再追求大型郊区住宅,他们更看重房屋的经济性和便利性。紧凑的户型设计更容易维护,且价格更亲民,这与“住房缩水通胀”的趋势相契合,表明市场需求也在发生变化。

A study published Aug. 11 from LendingTree shows new homes are 11% smaller yet 74% more expensive per square foot in the past decade. The average size of a new single-family home dropped from 2,707 square feet in 2014 to 2,404 square feet in 2024, according to the report. And over that decade span, the average price per square foot for a new single-family home jumped from $97.25 to $168.86.

Housing shrinkflation isn’t a new concept, but it’s becoming more evident as both new- and existing-home prices remain elevated.

Miles Alexander III, principal at real-estate development and investment firm Alexander Goshen, told Fortune housing shrinkflation is the result of a “perfect storm” from land, labor, and material prices surging. 

“To keep projects viable, builders are trimming square footage but maintaining price points,” Alexander said. “It’s not that we want to deliver less space, it’s that the economics demand it.”

Housing materials costs have been on the rise since the pandemic, but a recent study from Evernest, a property-management and real-estate brokerage services firm, shows President Donald Trump’s tariffs have already added more than $100,000 to the cost of a new home in at least one state. Many other states have also seen prices rise by tens of thousands of dollars, according to the study, due to tariffs on materials like imported steel, copper, drywall, and lumber. 

There is also a major construction-worker shortage. The Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported the construction industry needs to attract nearly half a million workers this year and next to meet demand for services. 

Jake Kennedy, a licensed real-estate agent with Compass in Tennessee, said housing shrinkflation isn’t just about giving buyers less—it’s about builders finding new ways to keep construction affordable.

“It’s the basic economics that happen when land, labor, and lumber all cost more, square footage is where the cuts get made,” Kennedy told Fortune. “Yes, new homes might be smaller, but the rising costs are being absorbed by fewer square feet, resulting in the on-paper appearance of houses being more expensive.”

Smaller homes force creativity

Smaller footprints and more expensive resources have “forced creativity” for developers, Alexander said. This means designing homes with pocket offices, multifunctional living areas, and layouts that maximize every inch. Plus, hallways are disappearing, he said. 

John Burns Research & Consulting also warned last year about the “death of the hallway” in new-home construction. “All that Tetris we played in the ‘90s has finally paid off. Instead of shrinking rooms to reduce overall home size, a common tactic among our architectural designers was to eliminate unnecessary circulation space,” JBREC wrote in its 2024 US Residential Architecture and Design Survey report. 

“Essentially, we’re Tetris-ing the functional rooms together, avoiding wasted square footage on non-functional areas like hallways.” 

Kennedy said he’s also seen builders essentially create smaller versions of the homes they were building before the pandemic. Bedrooms that might’ve been 12 feet by 15 are now closer to 10 feet by 12 feet. 

“Add that up in a two-story house with four bedrooms and it’s easy to see how a 2,500-square-foot house is becoming 2,000 square feet,” he said.

Different demands

Developers and real-estate experts also say younger generations have different needs and demands when it comes to housing. Millennials and Gen Zers, as well as other first-time homebuyers, “aren’t chasing the big suburban mansion,” Alexander said. 

“They’re more cost conscious, and they actually prefer compact layouts that are easier to maintain and more affordable,” he said. 

Elyse Sarnecky, marketing director with Marketplace Homes, told Fortune because affordability has become the chief concern for new buyers during the past year or so, many are willing to forgo extras or upgrades they would’ve wanted in new-home construction. And to be sure, new homes still remain spacious by historical standards, according to the LendingTree report: The average size of a new single-family home rose from 2,050 square feet in 1994 to 2,404 in 2024.

Sarnecky said most of her company’s new-construction buyers are more concerned with getting the best possible home they can get within their budget, she added.

“The actual floor plan of the home is really important as well when considering this. It has to work for their family,” Sarnecky said. “As long as it does, size is less of a factor.”

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住房缩水通胀 房地产 建筑成本 房屋设计
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