cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 08月15日
CATNet: A geometric deep learning approach for CAT bond spread prediction in the primary market
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本文提出CATNet,一种利用关系图卷积网络(R-GCN)建模CAT债券市场的框架,通过分析市场网络结构,显著提升预测准确性,为风险评估提供新视角。

arXiv:2508.10208v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional models for pricing catastrophe (CAT) bonds struggle to capture the complex, relational data inherent in these instruments. This paper introduces CATNet, a novel framework that applies a geometric deep learning architecture, the Relational Graph Convolutional Network (R-GCN), to model the CAT bond primary market as a graph, leveraging its underlying network structure for spread prediction. Our analysis reveals that the CAT bond market exhibits the characteristics of a scale-free network, a structure dominated by a few highly connected and influential hubs. CATNet demonstrates high predictive performance, significantly outperforming a strong Random Forest benchmark. The inclusion of topological centrality measures as features provides a further, significant boost in accuracy. Interpretability analysis confirms that these network features are not mere statistical artifacts; they are quantitative proxies for long-held industry intuition regarding issuer reputation, underwriter influence, and peril concentration. This research provides evidence that network connectivity is a key determinant of price, offering a new paradigm for risk assessment and proving that graph-based models can deliver both state-of-the-art accuracy and deeper, quantifiable market insights.

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CAT债券 关系图卷积网络 风险评估 市场洞察 网络结构
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