Wind and solar-dominated energy systems, with power generation shares as high as 70% to 80%, are technically possible finds an Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) report. It says these renewable sources, when supported by advanced grid and balancing technologies, can be as stable and resilient as fossil fuel-based ones.
Such systems can supply round-the-clock (RTC) electricity at costs equal to or below today’s fossil fuel generation.
The report writers expect the lowest costs in low-latitude ‘sun belt’ countries, such as India, Mexico, and much of Africa, thanks to abundant solar resources and only short-duration balancing needs. Here, costs can more than halve to $30/MWh to $40/MWh by 2050.
India, for instance, could reduce its power costs to $50/MWh with a solar-wind based electricity system to achieve a clean power system by 2050, since this will provide it day-night balancing. As per ETC modeling, solar would account for close to 80% of India’s installed capacity, while wind will provide the remaining 20% share.
By 2050, the report writers expect this setup to help India generate around 7,300 TWh of electricity annually, exceeding the country’s projected demand of 5,500 TWh, and more than triple the 2024 consumption of roughly 1,600 TWh. India would need to time-shift 40% of the electricity supply using short-duration storage to match demand. This can be done with minimal need for seasonal or multi-week balancing.
High-latitude nations, or ‘wind belt’ countries, such as the UK, Germany, and Canada, which depend more on wind and require substantial seasonal balancing, will face higher costs unless they have significant hydro capacity for affordable balancing. Even so, their costs should remain at or slightly below current levels.
Solar PV deployments have soared over the last few years, led by market leader China. In fact, the rapid growth of solar and wind has been driven by faster-than-expected cost reductions, as per ETC report titled Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems.
Since 2010, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and wind has fallen by 92% and 70%, respectively, driven mainly by steep capital cost declines – 82% for fixed-axis PV, 68% for onshore wind, and 59% for offshore wind. In China, solar and wind CapEx fell by 83% and 79% between 2014 and 2024.
These reductions, alongside lower installation and other costs, have made unsubsidized solar and wind competitive with fossil fuels in many markets. Projections indicate this cost advantage will widen, with solar expected to become the cheapest source of non-firm electricity in nearly all countries vis-à-vis traditional fossil fuel generation.
