A new European Union (EU) study uses patent data and economic complexity analysis to assess the bloc’s competitiveness in clean technologies. Findings suggest strong European prospects in wind, heat recovery, and ocean energy, but raise concerns over solar PV’s ability to translate innovation into manufacturing strength, placing it in the ‘Zombie’ category. 

Conducted by the European Commission’s research arm, Joint Research Centre (JRC), the study assesses the potential for 15 net-zero technologies under the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) using patent data. The method was cross-checked with an independent analysis of the JRC’s Clean Energy Technology Observatory.  

According to the JRC’s assessment, photovoltaics or solar PV falls in the ‘Zombies’ category, which means that despite a high level of patenting and research activities, it is not likely to translate into manufacturing competitiveness and generate economic returns.

In the 4 quadrants that the report places these various technologies, solar PV also finds itself marked in red alongside nuclear fission and batteries, meaning these have an overall ‘rather negative competitiveness judgment’. 

The report writers also point out that the EU once led in solar PV but lost its position after China first surpassed it in technological capability in 2004, then overtook it in 2008 in terms of PV cell and module production. Today, China is known as the world’s largest solar PV factory, while the EU targets 30 GW of PV manufacturing along the entire value chain by 2030 (see €480 Million For European Solar PV Partnership). 

“While this analysis was not carried out systematically and thus remains illustrative, it provides evidence on how technological dominance in terms of patenting should not be interpreted as a guarantee for future competitiveness, which is better captured by the evolution of technological capabilities,” explain the researchers.