- Why are stocks hitting record highs? Because the vast majority of companies are beating earnings and revenue expectations. With inflation contained and a Fed rate cut likely in September, investors remain optimistic. However, some analysts warn that overvalued tech stocks may signal a potential market correction. Global markets mostly rose today, while Bitcoin declined.
S&P 500 futures moved up this morning after the index closed at another all-time high yesterday, hitting 6,445.76. With inflation largely under control, investors appear to be assuming that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a 0.25% interest rate cut in September. Some analysts think that if the labor market continues to slow down, the cut might be 0.5%.
Regardless, the hope of incoming cheaper money is good for stocks.
Maybe … too good for stocks?
Some analysts think the market is heavily overvalued, and thus due for a correction. The S&P’s value is heavily driven by tech stocks, according to Apollo Management, and on one measure those stocks are more overvalued today than their equivalents were in the dot com bubble of the late 1990s. That bubble burst in 2000 and the index did not regain a new high until 2006.
But there’s another reason that traders continue to favor stocks. The fact is, companies are doing really well, according to JPMorgan. Seventy-six percent of the companies reporting their Q2 results so far have beaten earnings estimates, and 77% have beaten revenue estimates, according to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. Sixty-two percent have been double-beats.
Eighty-nine percent of the S&P 500 has reported Q2 earnings so far, and their average revenue growth is 6.1% over the prior year. Their net income growth is 10.9%, Lakos-Bujas says.
With companies overperforming versus expectations, and a September rate cut looking inevitable, it is not surprising that investors are buying into the action.
Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:
- S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.2% this morning, premarket, after the index closed up 1.13% yesterday. STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.49% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.16% in early trading.Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.3%, another all-time high. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.79%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 1.08%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.69%. Bitcoin declined to $119.9K.
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