Fortune | FORTUNE 08月12日
CBO: The poor get a $1,200 income cut and the rich get a $13,600 boost from Trump’s tax law
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根据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的估计,一项税改法案将导致最贫困的10%美国人每年损失约1200美元,主要因为政府项目如医疗补助和食品援助受到限制。相比之下,最富有的10%美国人将因减税而增加13,600美元的收入。尽管整体而言,美国家庭将从减税中获得更多收入,但最大的受益者是收入最高的10%人群。民主党人强烈反对该法案,认为其减税和支出优先事项将牺牲重要的政府援助项目,并导致国家债务膨胀。共和党人则辩称减税将刺激经济增长,但选民的反馈并不总是积极的。

💰 税改法案对不同收入群体的影响存在显著差异,最贫困的10%人口预计每年损失约1200美元,而最富有的10%人口的收入将增加约13,600美元,这加剧了贫富差距。

📉 贫困人口的损失主要来源于政府援助项目的收紧,例如医疗补助(Medicaid)和食品援助(如补充营养援助计划SNAP),预计近240万人将因新的工作要求而失去资格。

📈 尽管共和党人声称税改将刺激经济增长,但民主党人对此表示担忧,认为其将以牺牲关键的社会福利和国家长期财政健康为代价,并指出选民对该法案的反应并不完全支持。

📊 国会预算办公室(CBO)的评估方法受到了共和党人的质疑,他们认为CBO的预测存在偏差,并且倾向于支持政府增加开支和提高税收,这反映了对法案经济影响的不同解读。

The CBO estimates that the 10% of poorest Americans will lose roughly $1,200 a year as they experience restrictions on government programs like Medicaid and food assistance, while the richest 10% of Americans will see their income increase by $13,600 from tax cuts. Overall, American households will see more income from the tax cuts in the legislation, including middle income households, but the largest benefit will go to the top 10% of earners.

The CBO’s report comes as lawmakers are away from Washington, many taking their messages about the bill to voters. Republicans muscled the legislation — deemed “the big, beautiful bill” by Trump — through Congress in July. Democrats all vehemently opposed the legislation, warning that its tax cuts and spending priorities would come at the expense of vital government aid programs and a ballooning national debt.

“This really is a big, beautiful bill for billionaires, but for the poor and the working class in this country, you are actually poorer,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, in an MSNBC interview on Monday.

Changes to eligibility for government food assistance under the law will impact millions of Americans, the CBO found. Roughly 2.4 million people won’t be eligible for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program under new work requirements for many recipients. Low-income Americans could also see their income reduced through further restrictions on food aid and other types of assistance included in the law.

Already, more than 10 million Americans are expected to lose health insurance by 2034 due to changes to Medicaid under the law.

Following release of the report, Rep. Jason Smith, the Republican chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said he took issue with CBO’s methodology, repeating criticism he has made in the past.

“CBO has a troubled track record of getting its estimates incorrect and, like Democrats, is biased in favor of more federal spending and higher taxes,” Smith said on social media. “Don’t buy it.”

Republicans have been eager to sell the upsides of the legislation — arguing that the tax cuts will spur economic growth — while they are on a monthlong summer break from Washington. But those who have held townhalls in their home districts have often been greeted by an earful from voters and activists.

“Tax the rich,” the crowd in Lincoln, Neb. chanted last week as Republican Rep. Michael Flood attempted to defend the bill.

Still, Trump has been undeterred.

“President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is putting America First like never before, delivering huge savings for hardworking families, boosting our economy, and securing our borders,” said White House deputy press secretary Abigail Jackson in a statement last week.

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税改法案 贫富差距 政府援助 国会预算办公室 美国经济
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