a16z 08月11日
Investing Capital to Defend the NationNew
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本文强调,在当前地缘政治高度不确定的时代,对美国制造业回流、人工智能部署和能源规模化等领域的投资,其核心目的并非创造就业或影响油价,而是关乎国家的生存。作者认为,投资者而非政府,才是推动美国未来发展的关键力量。文章呼吁将投资重点从ESG(环境、社会和公司治理)转向GCI(全球竞争与创新),并指出中国在关键技术领域的崛起对美国构成了严峻挑战。通过对美国产业和创新基础进行大规模、协调性的再投资,特别是聚焦半导体、能源、AI、生物技术和太空等领域,不仅能增强国家安全,还能带来可观的经济回报,从而确保美国及其盟友在日益复杂的世界格局中保持竞争力和主导地位。

💰 **投资重心应转向全球竞争与创新(GCI)**:文章指出,过去将关键技术领域的投资归类为ESG(环境、社会和公司治理)是错误的。在当前地缘政治风险加剧、全球供应链脆弱的背景下,投资应聚焦于GCI,以应对国家生存和全球竞争的挑战。GCI的目标是增强国家安全和长期韧性,确保美国及其盟友能够持续建设、创新并捍卫自身利益,这比单纯追求ESG目标更为根本。

🇺🇸 **中国在关键技术领域的领先构成严峻挑战**:数据显示,中国在人工智能、生物技术、关键矿产和先进制造等64项关键技术中,已从2000年初的领先60项下降到仅领先7项,而中国则在57项中处于领先地位。中国不仅在研发上,更在商业化、规模化和控制全球供应链方面迅速崛起,导致美国在关键商品和技术上对潜在对手的依赖性日益增强,这已构成一项国家安全危机。

🚀 **GCI投资是国家安全与经济回报的双重驱动**:文章强调,对美国产业和创新基础的再投资,特别是聚焦半导体、能源、AI、生物技术和太空等八个关键领域,能够同时推进国家安全目标并带来潜在的超额回报。这种投资不仅是爱国行为,更是符合金融理性的策略,能够为美国在全球竞争中提供不对称的优势,确保国家在未来一个世纪的地缘政治格局中保持强劲。

🏦 **大规模资本的注入是推动产业升级的关键**:虽然风险投资社区已经在国家利益领域进行了数十亿美元的投资,但仅凭风险投资难以满足所需的规模。文章呼吁养老基金、主权财富基金、保险巨头和捐赠基金等大型机构投资者,通过调整风险框架、激励机制和长远视角,成为美国工业和创新基础“世代性重整军备”的关键推动者,并建议政府提供相应的支持。

💡 **重新定义信托责任,以系统性韧性为核心**:现代信托责任不应忽视对系统性韧性的需求。文章认为,投资美国产业活力并非慈善或权衡,而是构建国家主权和力量基石的前提。没有稳固的根基,就无法实现持久的回报。将国家安全和美国活力视为核心投资议程,比仅仅关注投入和信号的ESG更具战略意义,这是具有实际后果的资本主义,是对定义未来百年地缘政治力量的关键领域的明智投资。

Forget partisan debates. Onshoring manufacturing, deploying AI, and scaling energy aren’t about job creation or gas prices. They’re about national survival in an age of geopolitical volatility. And we believe investors — not government — hold the key to defending America’s future.

These types of investment promote dynamism in the face of a fragile global supply chain, strengthen our national security, and ensure long-term resilience in an increasingly polarized and fragmented world. No matter the crisis, they ensure America and her allies can build, innovate, and defend their interests. And crucially, it is not the government, but the capital markets, that are best positioned to drive this forward.

Large institutional investors, not bureaucrats or corporate boards hamstrung by quarterly expectations, are among the few actors with both the vision and the long time horizon necessary to invest in the dynamism that has propelled America forward over the last hundred years. However, it’s time to reframe this entire investment thesis. 

For years we incorrectly framed some of these categories as “ESG” or “climate risk.” That was wrong. Instead of investing in Environmental, Social, and Governance, we should be investing in Global Competition and Innovation (GCI). Meeting those other goals is a pyrrhic victory if we don’t maintain our ability to operate in a contested and unstable world where rivals like China are outpacing us in critical domains.

A recent CGCI (Council on Global Competition and Innovation) report makes the stakes crystal clear. While the United States led in 60 of 64 critical technologies in the early 2000s, we now lead in just seven. China leads in 57. From AI and biotech to critical minerals and advanced manufacturing, Beijing has surged ahead — not just in R&D, but in the ability to commercialize, scale, and control global supply chains. The United States, meanwhile, remains dangerously dependent on adversaries for essential goods and technologies.

This is more than a market failure or failure of one administration or another. It is a national security crisis in slow motion that has been playing out over more than 30 years. Playing defense with tariffs and export controls today is not enough if China or others cut off critical resources from America and her allies. Or, worse, if the rest of the world doesn’t want what we have to offer. Even worse is if we no longer produce things at all.

Consider China’s dominance in rare earth processing, semiconductors, solar and nuclear energy, and naval shipbuilding. These are not just industrial advantages. They are strategic weapons. And the picture becomes more urgent when you layer in China’s ability to curry favor through Belt-and-Road-style initiatives, or its potential to choke off key trade routes through Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

The global economy today hinges on technologies and materials controlled by fragile or adversarial regions. In my view, that’s a risk no diversified portfolio can hedge without a massive, coordinated reinvestment in American capacity. Not just in defense, but in every sector that underpins sovereignty and strength. 

Modern fiduciary duty can’t overlook the need for systemic resilience. It’s not charity and it’s not a tradeoff; it’s the precondition. Without a trusted foundation, there are no durable returns. Investing in American dynamism isn’t just patriotic; it’s financially rational.

The GCI framework offers more than a blueprint. Rather, it defines a national investment thesis. It identifies eight critical sectors — including semiconductors, energy, AI, biotech, and space — where market-led capital can simultaneously advance security and generate potential outsized returns. In a world where volatility is constant and traditional alpha is elusive, we believe GCI represents asymmetric upside.

The venture community is already proving the point. At Andreessen Horowitz, our American Dynamism practice has invested billions of dollars in national interest sectors: defense, AI, biotech, manufacturing, energy, and more. The results are early, yet compelling. But venture capital alone cannot move the needle at the scale we need.

Pension funds, sovereign wealth vehicles, insurance giants, and endowments are the real force multipliers. With the right risk frameworks, the right incentives, and the right long-term view, they can anchor the capital stack for a generational rearmament of the American industrial and innovation base. These large capital allocators should be sharpening their lens on GCI investing immediately, and with support from the government.

It’s time to stop treating national security and American Dynamism as someone else’s problem. Whereas ESG obsesses over inputs and signaling, GCI focuses on clear national security imperatives. This is capitalism with consequences — smart bets on sectors that will define geopolitical power for the next century.

If we want freedom to remain the world’s dominant operating system, we should fund it like our lives depend on it. Because they just might.

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相关标签

GCI 国家安全 产业升级 地缘政治 美国竞争力
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