Fortune | FORTUNE 08月08日
Yum China’s sales keep growing, but a fierce food delivery price war may be weighing on investor sentiment
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尽管Yum China(肯德基和必胜客在华运营商)公布了强劲的季度营收和利润增长,但其股价却出现下跌。分析师认为,这主要归因于中国大型科技公司在外卖领域展开的激烈价格战,通过巨额补贴争夺市场份额。这种“非理性消费”不仅扰乱了市场,也引发了投资者对Yum China未来盈利能力的担忧,尤其是当补贴结束时,其利润可能会受到负面影响。尽管如此,Yum China表示将继续扩张并采取措施保护价格的完整性,以应对激烈的市场竞争。

Yum China公布了强劲的季度财务数据,营收和利润均实现增长,这在整体消费相对疲软和全球经济不确定的背景下尤为不易。公司在中国第二大经济体运营近17,000家肯德基和必胜客门店,显示出其在中国市场的韧性。

尽管业绩向好,Yum China的股价却出现下跌,分析师认为主要原因在于中国科技巨头(如美团、饿了么和京东)在外卖市场展开了激烈的价格战,通过提供巨额补贴来争夺市场份额。这导致了“非理性消费”现象,并引发了投资者对Yum China未来利润稳定性的担忧。

Yum China首席执行官沃夫(Joey Wat)将激烈的平台竞争列为本季度最大的市场动态,并强调了保护价格完整性的重要性。她回顾了2017年外卖补贴竞争的经验,指出过度依赖补贴会导致在补贴取消后业务受到严重影响,因此公司不会“购买销量”。

Yum China的首席财务官丁英(Adrian Ding)指出,尽管外卖销售额增长显著,但骑手成本的上升导致劳动力成本占收入的比重有所增加。公司也承认,作为大商户,Yum China在补贴方面享有更优惠的安排,并且其盈利预测已将外卖补贴考虑在内,预计利润率将保持稳定。

中国监管机构已介入外卖市场的价格战,召集主要参与者讨论“鼓励理性竞争”和“培育健康生态”。随后,美团、京东和阿里巴巴这三家外卖平台在8月初同意达成价格战休战协议,这可能为市场带来一定的稳定。

Yum China, which operates almost 17,000 KFC and Pizza Hut outlets across the world’s second-largest economy, posted rising revenues and profits for the most recent quarter, growing even as Chinese consumption continues to be sluggish and as Trump’s trade war continues to shake up global economies.

Yet the company’s Hong Kong-traded shares plunged by 6% on Wednesday, despite the solid financial results. Shares later pared back losses, but are still down by 3% since the earnings release.

Analysts point to one possible reason for the mismatch between Yum China’s strong results and investor unease. China’s Big Tech companies are locked in a brutal price war in the country’s fiercely competitive food delivery space, promising billions of dollars worth of subsidies to merchants and consumers to win market share.

That’s shaking up not just the food delivery market, but the companies that make the food as well—like Yum China—even as deliveries surge in the short-term.

Investor fears could be partly due to worries that “the delivery subsidy might not continue,” wrote HSBC analysts in a Wednesday report. “Once the subsidy ends, [Yum China’s] earnings will be negatively impacted.” For now, HSBC maintained its “buy” rating on Yum China’s stock and increased its target price.

CEO Joey Wat called “intense delivery platform competition” the “biggest dynamic” in the quarter, in a post-earning briefing with analysts.

It’s the latest sign of how price wars and aggressive discounting—decried by both officials and business leaders as “irrational consumption”—is shaking investor faith in China’s largest companies. 

Food delivery wars

JD.com’s entry into the food delivery market has shaken up a sector dominated by Meituan and Alibaba-owned Ele.me. In February, JD unveiled JD Takeaway, promising zero commissions for merchants who joined early. Founder Richard Liu has made food delivery a key part of the company’s strategy, particularly as the e-commerce giant has floundered compared to its Big Tech peers. Liu even donned a uniform to deliver meals himself. 

The fierce battle has worried both investors and Chinese officials. Shares in both Meituan and JD.com are down by around 25% over the past six months. Alibaba is up by 10% over the same period, yet shares are still below their March peak. 

Both JD and Alibaba have promised subsidies worth billions of yuan to both merchants and consumers. Transactions on these platforms surged from 100 million daily orders at the start of the year to 250 million by mid-July, according to the South China Morning Post.

In mid-July, the State Administration for Market Regulation, China’s top markets regulator, summoned all three companies to “encourage rational competition” and “foster a healthy ecosystem.”

Chinese officials are starting to push back against aggressive price wars across China’s economy, particularly in the cut-throat EV sector. Officials have termed this excessive competition “involution,” meaning that companies are investing increasing resources to grab market share without receiving a proportional return.

On August 1, all three food delivery companies—Meituan, JD and Alibaba—agreed to a truce in their price war.

Yum China’s earnings

Yum China was born from Yum Brands’ decision to spin off its China operations in 2016. Yum China now operates 16,798 outlets across the world’s second-largest economy, primarily KFC and Pizza Hut outlets. (Yum China is No. 373 on the Fortune 500, making it one of the few companies on the list of the U.S.’s largest companies by revenue that makes most of its revenue overseas)

Yum China reported $2.8 billion in revenue for the most recent quarter, a 4% increase year-on-year. The company reported $215 million in quarterly net income, a 1% increase. The company is embarking on an aggressive expansion into China’s second-tier cities, hoping that affordable offerings like coffee and smaller pizzas will win over lower-income consumers.

Yet amid the strong results, chief financial officer Adrian Ding pointed out that Yum China’s cost of labor inched up by 0.9 percentage points over the last quarter, reaching 27.2%, which he blamed on “higher rider costs” due to a surge in deliveries. 

Delivery is the largest source of sales for Yum China, compared to dine-in and take-away. Delivery sales grew by 17% year-on-year during the first half of 2025, particularly among its emerging businesses like coffee. 

On Yum China’s earnings call, analysts asked what subsidies and the food delivery price war meant for the company’s earnings. 

Ding declined to share the specific share of subsidies paid by Yum China versus the platform operators, though suggested that larger merchants like Yum China “enjoy more favorable subsidy arrangement and subsidy split.” He also affirmed that Yum China expects margins to remain steady, guidance which takes delivery subsidies into account. 

Wat referred to a previous instance of fierce subsidy competition in 2017, the last bout of fierce competition between Meituan and Alibaba. “One lesson we learned is [that] we don’t buy sales,” Wat said. Yum China’s Pizza Hut was “a bit aggressive” in pursuing subsidies, “but then by 2018, when the subsidy was pulled, the business sales suffered quite a bit.”

“We need to protect the price integrity,” she said. “Otherwise it just does not work. The numbers don’t work.”

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Yum China 外卖价格战 中国消费市场 科技竞争 投资者信心
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