美国周日空袭了伊朗的三个核设施，引发市场关注。然而，尽管市场预期周一将出现波动，但全球市场却出人意料地保持平静。这种平静可能反映了多种因素：对未来局势的不确定性、空袭的时间以及伊朗有限的报复选项。投资者此前已对地缘政治风险有所预估，包括以色列与哈马斯的冲突以及以色列对伊朗军事领导人的袭击。尽管如此，特朗普总统关于“政权更迭”的言论和进一步袭击的可能性，为市场带来了新的不确定性，使得投资者对未来保持谨慎态度。

💣 周日美国对伊朗核设施的空袭行动，使用了“掩体炸弹”打击了伊朗的地下核基础设施。特朗普总统称造成的破坏是“巨大的”，并警告伊朗，如果进行报复将面临进一步的打击。

🤔 市场反应出乎意料地平静，这可能源于对未来局势的不确定性。伊朗尚未采取报复行动，这意味着美国可能只进行一次军事行动，而不是旷日持久的冲突。

💡 伊朗的报复选择有限，其依赖霍尔木兹海峡的石油收入，可能不愿激怒其石油出口邻国，且可供其使用的代理人和盟友数量有限。美国强调其目标是核设施，这意味着伊朗如果采取行动，可能会针对军事目标，从而避免全面战争爆发。

⏳ 空袭发生在周末，为交易者提供了处理潜在后果的时间。如果发生在交易时段，他们可能采取“宁可安全，不愿冒险”的行动，因为存在暴露并遭受重大损失的风险。

🌍 投资者几个月来一直在评估地缘政治风险，特别是考虑到以色列与哈马斯的冲突以及以色列最近对伊朗军事领导人和德黑兰代理人的袭击。然而，特朗普总统关于“政权更迭”的言论增加了市场的不确定性。

The US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday.Traders expected volatility on Monday, but markets have been unexpectedly calm.That likely reflects uncertainty, the timing of the bombings, and Iran's limited retaliation options.

Investors were bracing for a wild day of trading on Monday after the US bombed Iran on Sunday, but world markets are surprisingly calm.

As of 5:30 a.m. ET, US stock futures, Treasury yields, and gold have barely budged, crude oil prices are up only 0.3%, the US Dollar Index is 0.7% higher, and bitcoin has erased its dip to below $99,000 to trade at about $101,500.

The US used "bunker busters" to strike Iran's underground nuclear infrastructure. President Donald Trump hailed the damage as "monumental" and warned of further strikes if Iran retaliates.

The Iranian parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes about a fifth of the world's oil and gas. Government officials have said "all options" are on the table, yet financial markets appear largely unperturbed.

One reason is uncertainty over what comes next. Iran is yet to retaliate, meaning the possibility of a one-off US military engagement instead of a prolonged conflict hasn't been ruled out.

Iran seems to have limited options, given it relies on oil revenue from the Strait and may not want to anger its oil-exporting neighbors, and has fewer proxies and allies willing or able to help than in the past.

The US has also emphasized it targeted nuclear sites, meaning Iran might retaliate against military targets if it does take action, preventing a full-blown war from breaking out.

The fact the strikes occurred over the weekend has given traders time to process the potential fallout. If they happened during market hours, they might have taken knee-jerk actions with a "better safe than sorry" mindset, given the risk of being exposed and suffering big losses.

Investors have also been pricing in geopolitical risks for months, especially given the Israel-Hamas conflict and Israel's recent attacks on Iranian military leaders and Tehran's proxies such as Hezbollah.

However, Trump has raised the prospect of "regime change" and suggested further strikes aren't off the table, meaning the possibility of escalation remains.

The president's tariffs have already muddied the outlook for global growth, and the renewed possibility of America getting roped into a military campaign in the Middle East once again gives investors plenty to chew over.

It's clear a market panic hasn't taken hold as yet, but the US strikes have created a dust cloud of uncertainty and raised additional risks to market watchers.